Bitcoin Jumps Past $86,000 as Short Squeeze Powers Eight-Month High

Bitcoin climbed to a new eight-month high above $86,000 on Monday, extending a rally driven by forced short covering and renewed leveraged positioning. About $750 million in bearish crypto derivatives were liquidated as bitcoin broke through $82,000, a price cap that had held since August, according to CoinGlass. When shorts are liquidated, exchanges execute buy orders to close those positions, adding momentum to an already rising market. "Bitcoin up 5% this morning due to short perpetual futures contracts being liquidated," Schwab's head of crypto research Jim Ferraioli told CoinDesk. Leverage also rebuilt quickly. Futures open interest rose faster than the underlying price, with roughly $2 billion in new leveraged exposure added since the breakout, according to Coinalyze. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said price has turned bullish more quickly than positioning, with crypto-native traders slower to flip from bearish to bullish despite a mix of renewed ETF demand and short covering. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows totaling $746 million on Tuesday and Wednesday after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act via a cloture vote and the Federal Reserve raised rates with hawkish commentary, according to Farside Investors. Flows then swung back to inflows of $160 million on Thursday and $433 million on Friday, the strongest intake day of the week. Monday's flow data is due later and remains a key watch point. The move also put ETF holders back in the black. The average cost basis for U.S. BTC ETF buyers is $82,225, marking one of the first stretches in some time in which ETF investors are sitting on gains. The $82,000 level is in focus because it previously rejected bitcoin. A May attempt to break it failed, followed by a slide below $60,000 in June. With the new breakout, the next psychological target is $90,000. Sondergaard highlighted $87,000 as the next level to monitor, then $90,000 and roughly $92,000. Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere also said a test of $90,000 is plausible. Monday's breakout came despite last week's macro and political turbulence, including the stalled Clarity Act vote and the Fed's rate hike. Bitcoin also reclaimed its 50-week moving average, a longer-term trend line often used in systematic strategies. De Maere noted that this average acted as resistance in prior bear markets, and clearing it may have helped validate a more constructive signal. "We, like many others, would read this reclaim as confirmation that the June low holds," he said. Some market participants are turning optimistic but remain wary of a pullback. Chris Sullivan, co-portfolio manager at Hyperion Decimus, described the move as the start of a new bullish cycle while expecting a meaningful correction once the rally loses steam. "This should be the first primary wave/rally of the new bull market," he said, adding that "we're going to see a large correction once this rally exhausts itself." Social media chatter has revived talk of a new record, but De Maere called speculation about topping bitcoin's $126,000 peak from October 2025 before year-end "premature at the moment," noting early bull phases often come with heavy volatility. The next test is whether spot demand catches up with derivatives-led momentum. Sondergaard said he wants to see sustained spot buying and continued ETF inflows. Without that support, the move risks becoming overly leverage-driven and vulnerable to reversal from higher government bond yields or a geopolitical shock. Rapid leverage buildup can be dangerous if spot demand fails to keep pace, a dynamic the market experienced on Oct. 10 when bitcoin fell from near-record levels and a liquidation cascade wiped out roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions. Ferraioli added that altcoins have begun to rally alongside bitcoin, a sign risk appetite may be broadening. He said the key question is whether activity on smaller blockchains actually improves, rather than prices simply rebounding harder after being oversold. De Maere said investors are now watching three factors closely: ETF flows in the coming days, signs of excess in perpetual futures reflected in elevated open interest or funding rates, and Friday's options expiry. "So far this rally is looking pretty healthy," he said.