Fed officials to take the stage next week as markets zero in on CPI and July hike risk
AI Market Summary
A dense slate of Fed speeches next week, including Powell testimony and remarks after the June CPI, raises event risk around the July policy path. Markets will parse Waller's reaction-function detail and whether any officials signal openness to a near-term hike, after minutes showed "several" favored tightening. Shifting oil prices, inflation expectations, and a firmer labor market keep the distribution of outcomes wide, supporting near-term USD volatility.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT+0.16%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Deutsche Bank said Fed communication is set to ramp up next week after a relatively quiet stretch, with a heavy slate of speeches scheduled ahead of the pre-meeting blackout period, according to ME News on July 11 (UTC+8).
Key events include Governor Christopher Waller speaking Monday at the New York Association for Business Economics, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. After the June CPI release, several officials are expected to offer updated views, including Lisa Cook on Wednesday, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid on Friday.
Powell is expected to stick to his recent approach and avoid signaling the next policy move. Waller, who typically provides more detail on how he responds to incoming data, will be watched closely for any shift in his policy lean.
Investors will focus on how officials interpret this week's inflation figures and whether any appear more inclined toward a July rate increase. The minutes from the June meeting showed "several" participants thought a hike was warranted last month. Since then, signals have been mixed: oil prices and inflation expectations fell and later partly rebounded, while unemployment declined further, keeping the prospect of dissenting votes in favor of a July hike on the table. (Source: BlockBeats)
