Iran Shuts the Strait of Hormuz; Oman Floats Two-Lane Shipping Framework

Compiled by the Jinshi Futures App, here is a roundup of major futures and macro developments over the past week. Monday Saudi Arabia made its sharpest crude price cut in at least 26 years, slashing official selling prices for key grades to Asian buyers as global supply surged and competition for customers intensified. A price list showed Aramco cut August Arab Light to Asia by $11 per barrel to a $1.50 discount versus the regional benchmark, exceeding the $8 drop expected in institutional surveys. Middle East crude prices have been under pressure. After exports resumed from Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf, Aramco lifted shipments to about 90% of prewar levels. With the Strait of Hormuz previously blocked by the war, most flows had been rerouted to Yanbu on the Red Sea. OPEC+ has agreed to continue modest output increases in August. With transit through the Strait restored, Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait are positioned to make fuller use of higher quotas. China's Ganqimaodu border port is bracing for a holiday-related slowdown. Under the China–Mongolia arrangement, three border crossings will close for five days during Mongolia's Naadam Festival (July 11–15), resuming customs operations on July 16. Mysteel said some Mongolian truck drivers have already headed home early; truck throughput at Ganqimaodu is expected to fall gradually to below 600 this week. Inventory in the port's regulated area stands at 4.3491 million tons and is projected to drop to around 3.3 million tons after the holiday. Traders expect tighter availability of high-quality spot cargoes and modest price rises: Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at RMB 1,200–1,230/ton, No. 4 raw coal at RMB 1,210–1,230/ton, and No. 3 washed coal at RMB 1,240–1,250/ton. (Mysteel) The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) opened a public consultation on a draft Coke Futures Options Contract, with feedback due by July 13, 2026. The draft aligns with DCE's existing commodity options framework: contract size, quotation unit, daily price limit, contract months and trading hours mirror the underlying coke futures; the options use American-style exercise; strike prices span a range equal to 1.5 times the underlying futures' daily price limit; and the expiration date/last trading day is set as the 12th trading day of the month before the underlying futures delivery month, subject to adjustment for statutory holidays. DCE said it conducted extensive industry consultations and will incorporate market feedback to support a smooth launch. (DCE) Tuesday The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted fee standards effective July 9, 2026. For polysilicon futures PS2607–PS2706, the trading fee is set at 0.01% of transaction value, while the intraday flat-to-open fee remains 0.025%. For lithium carbonate futures LC2607–LC2706, the trading fee becomes 0.016%, with the intraday flat-to-open fee unchanged at 0.032%. Five sources said Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its east–west crude pipeline to the Red Sea, potentially adding around 2 million barrels per day of capacity to help bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Built in the early 1980s, the pipeline can deliver up to 7 million bpd to Yanbu. Aramco's CEO said in May that about 2 million bpd supplies refineries on the western coast and roughly 5 million bpd is exported. The scope remains unclear, including whether the plan involves upgrades or a new line, and may include a smaller product pipeline. Sources said the project would take several years, cost billions of dollars and require adjustments to Saudi crude pricing. China's central bank increased gold reserves for a 20th straight month. As of end-June, gold holdings rose to 75.44 million troy ounces (about 2,346.446 metric tons), up 480,000 ounces (about 14.93 metric tons) from end-May's 74.96 million ounces (about 2,331.52 metric tons). Nigeria's largest lithium ore processing facility by raw-ore throughput has started operations in Nasarawa State, local media reported. Operated by Chinese-funded Diamond Energy Group, the plant processes 6,000 tons per day; local reports cite annual output of 3 million tons, equivalent to about 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate. People familiar with the matter said Jiangxi Jiuling Lithium Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Tianhua New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. each hold a 50% stake. (Jingjiwang) The World Bank kept its 2026 China growth forecast unchanged at 4.4% in a July 7 update released in Beijing, citing resilience despite oversupply, weak demand and global energy shocks. (Xinhua) DCE adjusted benzene futures risk parameters effective after settlement on Friday, July 10, 2026: the daily price limit is lowered from 7% to 6% and margin requirements from 8% to 7%. For BZ2608 and BZ2609, the daily limit is reduced from 12% to 8% and margins from 14% to 10%. Where multiple risk rules apply, the higher limit and margin prevail. DCE also revised fees for styrene (EB) and benzene (BZ) effective July 10, 2026 (night session July 9). For EB, speculative and hedging fees are cut from RMB 3/lot to RMB 1/lot; hedging fees are reduced from RMB 1.5/lot to RMB 0.5/lot. For BZ, fees shift from 0.01% of transaction value to fixed rates of RMB 3/lot (speculative) and RMB 1.5/lot (hedging). China's State Administration for Market Regulation said it will launch random inspections of fair competition reviews in 2026, including targeted checks in key sectors using tools such as spot inspections, interviews and public notices. The agency is also pushing amendments to the Price Law to refine standards for identifying unfair pricing (including predatory pricing), expand enforcement tools and strengthen legal liabilities, aiming to curb unchecked "price wars." (CCTV) Wednesday At a NATO summit, U.S. President Trump said he believes the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding has ended. (Xinhua) Iran's Fars News cited Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, as saying Iran still has unused options, including withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, revising its nuclear doctrine, and blockading the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in addition to actions around the Strait of Hormuz. He said a proposal to exit the NPT is prepared for parliamentary review and that nuclear doctrine revisions could be considered if Iran faces an existential threat. A senior Iranian source told TASS that Iran has officially suspended negotiations with the United States on a final solution due to U.S. threats. Trump told Al Jazeera that strikes targeting Iran would lift oil prices only slightly, estimating the move at about $2. He also said a renewed U.S.–Iran conflict could push prices higher but insisted the increase would be limited to $2. Iran's Press TV cited informed security sources as saying Iran would respond to enemy targets at a ratio of at least "two to one." The sources said Iran would reopen the strait under its own arrangements under a memorandum of understanding with Islamabad, but would close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked again. They added Iran would not back down on strait management and would not distinguish between the United States and regional partners. Trump said restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz may be reinstated, targeting Iran. He said the U.S. cannot trust Iran and suggested further attacks could follow, adding that higher-level targets could be hit if needed, including power and water infrastructure, and raising the possibility of taking control of Kharg Island. He also said Witkoff could take part in talks but saw no current path. The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw $8.9 billion of outflows in June but still posted net inflows of $8 billion in the first half of the year, helped by strong Asian demand. Total AUM reached $526 billion at end-June, down 6% in the first half due mainly to lower gold prices. Holdings rose by 18 metric tons in H1 to 4,047 metric tons. Trading volumes fell in June, while average daily trading value in H1 hit a record $488 billion. The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3% while raising China's 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6%. It trimmed advanced-economy growth by 0.1 point to 1.7% and emerging/developing economy growth by 0.1 point to 3.8%. (Xinhua) The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee said at its Q2 2026 meeting it will keep implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen countercyclical and cross-cycle adjustments, better balance aggregate and structural tools, coordinate monetary and fiscal policy, support stable growth and promote a reasonable rebound in prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) adjusted daily limits and margin requirements effective after close and settlement on Friday, July 10, 2026. Petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber futures: limit 10%, hedging margin 11%, general margin 12%. Natural rubber RU2607, RU2608, RU2609, RU2610, RU2611, RU2701, RU2703: limit 7%, hedging margin 8%, general margin 9%. Pulp SP2607–SP2703: limit 5%, hedging margin 6%, general margin 7%. Offset printing paper OP2607–OP2703: limit 5%, hedging margin 6%, general margin 7%. From July 10 trading (night session July 9), pulp and offset printing paper fees move to 0.0002% of transaction value. Yahua Group told investors its current spodumene inventory can support normal lithium salt production in China. The Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe maintained normal operations during an export ban, with no impact on ore output. After receiving export quota approvals and procedures, the company shipped spodumene to China and the cargo remains in transit. (Securities Times) The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) set new parameters for 20-Rubber futures effective after settlement on Friday, July 10, 2026: for NR2607–NR2703, daily price limit 7%, hedging margin 8%, general margin 9%. Thursday China's State Council released the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peak," calling for an accelerated low-carbon transition in transport. It targets about 30% of vehicles in circulation to be new energy vehicles by 2030, and 25% for new energy operational transport vehicles. The plan emphasizes fleet electrification, wider use of new energy in construction sites, mines, ports and logistics parks, charging/swapping networks, green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol refueling, zero-carbon freight corridors, and cleaner shipping fuels including electricity, LNG, biodiesel and green methanol. (China government website) Axios reported the White House is preparing for the possibility that fighting with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz could last days or weeks, potentially a week or a month, depending on whether Iran continues targeting commercial shipping. U.S. officials said hundreds of tankers have recently exited the Gulf, easing fears of an immediate oil-price spike. The report said diplomacy has stalled and military pressure is again central to Trump's strategy. China's National Bureau of Statistics said CPI in June 2026 rose 1.0% year on year and fell 0.3% month on month. From January to June, CPI averaged up 1.0% versus the same period a year earlier. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data showed steady growth in new energy vehicles in the first half: production 7.438 million units (+6.7% YoY), sales 7.446 million (+7.3% YoY). In June, NEVs accounted for nearly 60% of new vehicle sales. Total vehicle exports for January–June reached 5.096 million units (+65.3% YoY), with NEV exports at 2.355 million (+120% YoY). (CCTV) Indonesia's energy minister said the B50 policy will lift domestic crude palm oil consumption from 15.2 million tons to 16.3–17 million tons as the country rolls out its biodiesel program; markets await revised biodiesel quotas. The U.S. CFTC said it will use its authority to delay listing a contract that would have allowed CME to begin 24-hour crude oil futures trading as early as July 10. Iranian Students News Agency cited Pakistani government sources as saying Pakistan and Qatar have opened new channels with the U.S. and Iran to halt military actions and encourage a return to negotiations under the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. The sources said Pakistan remains optimistic about keeping the memorandum despite escalation. Friday China's National Development and Reform Commission said it will strengthen measures to ensure power supply, including boosting stable production and supply of primary energy such as coal and natural gas, optimizing dispatch of wind, solar, hydro, thermal and storage resources, improving cross-regional mutual support via the national unified power market, and refining demand-side management. (NDRC) China's National Energy Administration issued the Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028). It calls for an orderly shutdown of qualifying coal-fired units of 300 MW and below, with replacement units built to next-generation coal standards. It also calls for key retrofits to upgrade 600 MW-class units to ultra-supercritical or super-ultra-supercritical levels, supports retrofits for low/zero-carbon fuel co-firing and CCUS, and targets an approximately 10% reduction in carbon emissions per kWh after retrofits. Malaysia's MPOB reported June palm oil inventory of 2.5441 million tons (+4.78% MoM). Crude palm oil production rose to 1.6388 million tons (+8.08% MoM) and exports increased to 1.2040 million tons (+6.19% MoM). Imports jumped 135.33% MoM, pushing inventories up for a third consecutive month and above market expectations of 2.5 million tons. The IEA warned that renewed escalation in U.S.–Iran hostilities could undermine its outlook for a sizeable oil surplus in 2027. It said global oil supply rose 4.1 million bpd in June after the Strait of Hormuz reopened but still stood 9.4 million bpd below prewar levels. The agency noted that the effective closure during the peak of the crisis had cut flows by as much as 14 million bpd. While it forecasts a 7.5 million bpd supply increase next year, that depends on improved transit through the strait. The July 7–8 escalation could overturn expectations of a shift to surplus. Congolese media reported the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Directorate General of Taxes seized offices and certain facilities of Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) in Kolwezi, Lualaba Province, on July 9 over about $3 billion in alleged unpaid taxes, prompting some evacuations and a temporary halt to copper and cobalt production at affected sites. SMM said KCC has produced around 190,000 tons of cathode copper annually over the past two years; prolonged disruption could tighten DRC copper and cobalt supply. (SMM) China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs raised its 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 150,000 tons to 12.95 million tons and lowered the estimated domestic sugar price range to RMB 5,300–5,600/ton. It said domestic supply is sufficient and summer consumption should gradually draw down inventories. For 2026/27, the supply-demand forecast is unchanged. The ministry also flagged risks from heavy rainfall in Guangxi and Guangdong driven by Typhoon Maysak and monsoons, while globally it cited lower Brazil sugar output due to higher ethanol demand, weaker India monsoon rains and European heatwave/drought risks. The China Futures Association issued the "China Futures Association Self-Regulatory Rules Development Method," revising its rulemaking measures and adding the Futures and Derivatives Law as a higher-level legal basis to reflect the law's formal recognition of the association's mandate to formulate and implement industry self-regulatory rules. Emirates Global Aluminium said it has restarted the Al Taweelah alumina refinery. Capacity is expected to reach 50% within days and full technical capacity by year-end; subsequent ramp-up depends on supply chain conditions and procurement optimization. EGA said its plan to increase alumina production does not depend on the refinery operating at full capacity. Axios reported that new U.S.–Iran talks could begin next week, possibly in Switzerland. Trump said the U.S. is willing to continue negotiations but will no longer abide by the ceasefire agreement. Mediators have worked to prevent a full collapse of the deal; Qatar had coordinated with the U.S. on Friday to travel to Iran to ease tensions and pave the way for talks. Saturday USDA's July report raised projected U.S. oilseed production for 2026/27 to 131.6 million metric tons (+1.2 million from last month), driven by higher yields for soybeans, canola and cottonseed, partly offset by lower sunflower seed and peanut output. Soybean production is forecast at 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million on higher harvested area (84.4 million acres, +700,000). Yield is unchanged at 53.0 bushels/acre. Total soybean supply rises by 30 million bushels as higher production offsets lower beginning stocks. Crush forecasts for 2025/26 and 2026/27 are unchanged. Soybean exports are raised by 30 million bushels on stronger global demand. Ending stocks for 2026/27 remain 310 million bushels. Prices are unchanged: soybeans $11.40/bushel, soybean meal $310/short ton, soybean oil 70 cents/pound. Fars News cited sources close to Iran's negotiating team as saying reports that Iran requested talks with the U.S. are false, adding Iran will not negotiate until the U.S. withdraws its position. CNN reported satellite images suggest Iran may be rebuilding parts of suspected nuclear and missile-related facilities, raising questions about compliance with the June 17 U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding. The report highlighted activity at the Talgan-2 facility at the Parchin base and vehicle movements at the suspected underground facility "Kowh" during the period the memorandum was in effect. CBS reported senior U.S. officials said Iranian officials privately told Trump administration advisers that Iran's firing on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz was an "internal mistake" driven by a hardline faction seeking to derail negotiations, and that Iran wanted to continue talks. U.S. officials said Trump directed a team led by Vice President Vance, Kushner, Witkoff and Secretary Rubio to continue negotiations, to be held in Oman, warning that further hostile action would draw military and economic responses. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran has never requested negotiations with the U.S., but has agreed to allow mediators to visit Iran. The comments followed Trump's post on "Truth Social" claiming Iran wants to continue talks and the U.S. has agreed. (CCTV) Sunday U.S. Central Command again rejected Iranian claims of "controlling" the Strait of Hormuz, calling the strait an international waterway and saying U.S. forces are deployed to ensure freedom of navigation. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on July 12 that the Strait of Hormuz is currently impassable and that it will resume processing transit applications and issuing permits once the situation stabilizes. (Xinhua) U.S. Central Command said shipping is flowing normally and reiterated that Iran does not control the strait. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced at dawn on July 12 that the Strait of Hormuz was closed effective immediately, barring all vessels. The statement said the closure would remain until further notice and until the United States ceases interference in the region. It alleged several vessels attempted to use unapproved routes and ignored warnings; one ship disabled its AIS and was halted after a warning shot. The IRGC warned that any new U.S. attacks using the incident as a pretext would trigger forceful retaliation against additional U.S. bases in the Middle East. (Xinhua) CNN cited a source familiar with negotiations as saying Oman has drafted a proposal to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz via two independently managed lanes. Under the not-yet-finalized arrangement, both lanes would remain open: a southern lane in Omani waters would allow free transit as before the conflict, while a northern lane in Iranian waters would require prior Iranian approval, with no tolls. Iran's foreign minister met Oman's foreign minister in Muscat on Saturday to discuss mechanisms to ensure safe passage through the strait.