Kalshi, Polymarket top $44 billion in combined 2025 trading volume
AI Market Summary
Kalshi and Polymarket's surging volumes and fee revenues signal rapid institutionalization of prediction markets, potentially expanding demand for crypto-native rails and liquidity. Regulatory developments remain pivotal: CFTC-registered structures support U.S. growth, while ongoing state litigation and uneven EU treatment under MiCA introduce headline and compliance risk, especially for platforms using crypto settlement, custody, or transfers that may require CASP licensing.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT-0.91%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket handled more than $44 billion in combined trading volume in 2025. As of April 2026, their combined monthly volume climbed to $24 billion, exceeding the average monthly wagering volume seen on regulated U.S. sports-betting platforms. Kalshi generated $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, and its annualized revenue rate has now surpassed $1.5 billion.
Prediction markets typically run a binary contract exchange model: the platform matches buyers and sellers but does not place bets itself, hold directional positions, or take event-outcome risk. Revenue is primarily driven by transaction fees, with additional contributions from data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and market-creation fees on some venues.
In the U.S., Kalshi operates as a designated contract market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket returned to the U.S. market at the end of 2025 after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-regulated entity, for $1.12 billion. Some states still treat prediction-market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state litigation remains ongoing.
In the EU, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not explicitly define the legal status of prediction-market contracts, resulting in different classifications across member states. Platforms that use crypto settlement and offer custody or transfer services to EU users must obtain a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license.
