Doubts Persist Over Whether Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Are Truly Rebounding

Huo Huo Finance reported that crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are edging higher as of Aug. 27, but the market remains wary, citing a wide disconnect between rising loadings by Gulf producers and actual arrivals into Asia. Traders estimate roughly 6–8 million barrels per day are currently transiting the strait, about half of pre-conflict volumes. Loadings have picked up in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait, with Iraq's daily loading briefly exceeding pre-conflict levels. Even so, part of the crude still requires transshipment through hubs such as Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the UAE, underscoring that stronger loading activity does not necessarily mean barrels have reached Asian buyers. Kpler data indicate Asia's projected crude imports for August at 23.12 million barrels per day, about 14% below the three-month pre-conflict average of 26.91 million barrels per day. India's August crude imports are seen at 4.51 million barrels per day, including around 1.45 million barrels per day from the Middle East—about half the pre-conflict average. Middle Eastern crude arrivals into Asia in August are estimated at 11.11 million barrels per day, up from 10.76 million barrels per day in July, but still nearly 30% below the pre-conflict level of 15.82 million barrels per day. Analysts said the gap between loadings and arrivals could partly reflect shipping delays. They added that data in the coming weeks will be key to judging whether supply through the Strait of Hormuz has genuinely recovered.