West Africa Weather Threats Push Cocoa Prices Higher
AI Market Summary
Abnormally heavy rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana is disrupting farm-to-port logistics and raising cocoa tree disease risk, tightening near-term supply expectations. El Niño confirmation and elevated odds of a "super" El Niño increase the probability of broader weather stress, while early estimates point to a potential 18% YoY Ivorian output decline in 2026/27. StoneX cutting the projected global surplus reinforces the bullish supply shock narrative.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+2.29%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Unusually heavy rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana—West Africa's key cocoa producers—has disrupted transport between farms and ports and heightened the risk of cocoa tree disease. Japan's Meteorological Agency has confirmed an El Niño is in place, while NOAA puts the probability of a "super El Niño" at 67%, a scenario expected to intensify drought stress.
Early assessments suggest Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 cocoa output could fall to about 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% year on year. StoneX has also cut its forecast for the global cocoa surplus to 149,000 tonnes. Cocoa futures in both ICE and London climbed more than 1.6% in a single session, nearing a 5.5-month high.
