Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,800 and has retreated below $67,500, with price now under $67,000 and the 100‑hour simple moving average. A bearish trendline around $67,500 on the hourly BTC/USD chart (data feed from Kraken) caps rebounds, and a drop through $66,000 or $65,000 could extend losses.

JPMorgan estimates that the average cost to mine one Bitcoin has declined from $90,000 to about $77,000 since the beginning of the year, following a roughly 15% drop in network difficulty and lower hashrate. The bank argues that this easing is pressuring high‑cost miners but improving margins and market share prospects for more efficient operators, while it continues to project a long‑term Bitcoin price target of $266,000.

BitQuant argued that Bitcoin’s retreat toward $60,000 was a necessary reset after an early local top above $126,000 in October 2025 failed to meet its $145,000 threshold. The firm said a Binance technical issue on October 10 coincided with a slide from about $120,000 to $105,000, but the broader decline reflected structural weaknesses rather than panic or manipulation.

Perplexity AI has issued long-term price projections for XRP, Cardano and Bitcoin, outlining potential new all-time highs by the end of 2026. Its scenario points to XRP rising toward $8, Cardano advancing to around $6 and Bitcoin reaching as high as $250,000, with an additional upside case of $500,000. The outlook is framed around current prices, technical indicators, ecosystem growth and expected catalysts such as ETF approvals, regulation and institutional demand.

On Oct. 2, 2025, Bitcoin set an all‑time high at $126,000. On Feb. 6, Glassnode recorded a long‑term holder net‑position change drop of 245,000 BTC, followed by average reductions of 170,000 BTC, while CryptoQuant’s MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score hit -2.66. Several analysts now project a potential bottom around $40,000–$50,000 in Q4 2026.

Bitcoin set a weekly low near $65,500 and has fallen for four straight days, while funding rates in futures remain deeply negative since early February. According to CryptoQuant, the 7-day average turned negative for the first time since March 2023 and November 2022, and analysts say crowded shorts could face a squeeze if $58,000 holds.

On Feb. 5, on-chain data cited by CryptoQuant showed cryptocurrency investors locking in $3.2 billion in realized losses within 24 hours, placing the sell-off among Bitcoin's top 3–5 historical loss events. The downturn follows a week of average daily realized losses of $2.3 billion and comes as Standard Chartered warns Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 amid a weakening macro backdrop.

On Feb. 11, 2026, James "Checkmate" Check told host Danny Knowles that Bitcoin's slide into the $60,000 area pushed it into "deep value" across several mean-reversion models, while capitulation-style losses matched 2022 cycle lows. He estimated the probability that a meaningful bottom is already in at "more than 50/50", "probably 60%", and cited roughly $7.5 billion in ETF outflows during the drawdown.