Tourmaline targets a bigger 2026 as Canada’s LNG exports expand
AI Market Summary
Canada's record 2025 natural gas output and the start of LNG Canada exports shift Canadian gas from a purely North America-priced market toward global LNG-linked demand. Regulatory guidance that incremental supply likely flows to LNG supports a more durable demand outlet, but the article highlights persistent sensitivity to Western North American spot gas prices and the potential for producers to defer capex if pricing weakens.
Impact level
● Low
Affected assets
NCCONATURALGAS2USD/USDT+0.87%
AI Insight · NCCONATURALGAS2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Canada’s natural gas output hit a record 19 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, and set a monthly high of 20 billion cubic feet per day in November, as LNG exports began. LNG Canada Phase 1 entered production in the summer of 2025, with its first shipment exported to Asian markets in June 2025. The Canada Energy Regulator has said most future incremental gas supply is expected to flow to LNG exports. Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) has lifted its 2026–2027 free cash flow outlook to about $900 million per year while maintaining a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, though the company faces exposure to North American gas-price volatility.
