Indian gold retailers brace for a tough first quarter as import duty jumps to 15% and adhik maas curbs buying
AI Market Summary
India's gold demand is facing a multi-factor shock: a sharp import duty hike (6% to 15%), a government call to defer purchases to conserve FX, and the adhik maas seasonal lull. Retailers report elevated old-gold exchanges (about 43–46% of Q1 sales), signaling weak fresh buying, while Crisil expects FY27 volumes to fall 13–15%. Softer Indian consumption can temper near-term physical demand conditions for gold.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOGOLD2USD/USDT+0.26%
AI Insight · NCCOGOLD2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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India raised the total effective import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 6% on 13 May, following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 10 May call for people to defer gold purchases for a year to conserve foreign exchange reserves. Demand was further weighed by adhik maas, a traditional lull from 17 May to 15 June. Over the same period, international gold prices fell more than 30% from the January peak of $5,600 to below $4,000. Several jewellers said old-gold exchanges made up 43–46% of Q1 sales, while Crisil forecast FY27 retail jewellery volumes would decline 13–15%.
