West Africa flooding and El Niño risks push cocoa futures toward 5.5-month highs
Unusually heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted transport to farms and ports and raised disease risks for cocoa trees, tightening supply expectations. Japan’s Meteorological Agency has confirmed El Niño formation, while NOAA puts the odds of a “Super El Niño” at 67%, a scenario that could worsen drought stress. Early assessments indicate Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop could be about 1.8 MMT, down 18% year on year, and StoneX has cut its projected global cocoa surplus to 149,000 MT. ICE and London cocoa futures rose more than 1.6% in a session, nearing 5.5-month highs.