Cocoa prices slide as Ivory Coast shipments hit 2.11 MMT and ICE stocks rise to 3,319,249 bags
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures fell sharply as incoming supply signals strengthened: Ivory Coast shipments for the current marketing year rose 21% y/y, Nigeria's June exports increased 30% y/y, and ICE inventories climbed to a two-year high. Demand indicators were mixed, with European grindings at a six-year Q2 low while North American and Asian grindings surprised higher. Near-term pricing is pressured by inventory and export flows despite weather and 2026/27 crop risks.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-4.30%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Cocoa prices fell as signs of ample supply weighed on the market, with Ivory Coast port arrivals reaching 2.11 MMT in the 2025/26 season (Oct. 1, 2025–July 26, 2026), up 21% year on year, and Nigeria’s June exports rising 30% to 18,922 MT. ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a two-year high of 3,319,249 bags. Against that backdrop, September ICE New York cocoa futures dropped 4.76% in a single session to a three-week low. In demand signals, European Q2 grindings fell 4.6% to a six-year low, while North American and Asian grindings rose more than expected.
