Citadel Securities flags risk of Fed rate hikes restarting in September 2026
Citadel Securities said the Federal Reserve could restart rate hikes as early as September 2026, citing inflation that remains above target, a strong labor market, and AI-driven capital spending that could add demand pressure. May CPI rose to 4.2% and PPI climbed to 6.5%, while a larger share of core CPI components is now posting annual gains above 3%. Markets have lifted the implied probability of a Fed hike before July 2027 to 60%, according to Kalshi data. The firm said the shift in macro expectations weighs on long-duration asset pricing but does not amount to an immediate trading signal tied to specific stocks or commodities.