ICE cocoa futures rise 1.41% in New York and 1.23% in London on short covering
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures rebounded on pre-weekend short covering and a softer USD, despite near-term fundamentals remaining heavy with Ivory Coast shipments up 21% y/y and ICE inventories at a two-year high. Focus is shifting to tighter 2026/27 supply risks: early Ivory Coast crop surveys imply ~18% lower output, Nigeria forecasts an 11% production decline, and consultants are sharply cutting expected global surplus amid El Niño threats to West Africa.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+0.92%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Cocoa futures rebounded on Friday, with the September ICE New York contract up 1.41% and the September ICE London contract up 1.23%. The gains were attributed to pre-weekend short covering and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. The rally came despite signs of ample supply, including Ivory Coast port arrivals running 21% higher year on year and ICE inventories at a two-year high of 3,319,249 bags. Longer-term, tighter expectations for 2026/27—linked to El Niño risks and softer crop outlooks—have supported prices, including a Transgraph Consulting forecast for the global surplus to shrink to 80,000 metric tons.
