Cocoa futures slide to three-week lows as global supply builds
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures slid to three-week lows as evidence of near-term supply abundance dominated: Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 21% y/y, Nigerian June exports rose 30%, and ICE inventories reached a two-year high. Demand signals are mixed across regions, but inventory builds and stronger flows tighten the spot balance less than feared. El Niño risk and 2026/27 crop uncertainty remain supportive longer term, yet oversupply drives the immediate tone.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-4.30%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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September ICE New York cocoa (CCU26) fell 5.13% in a single session, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) dropped 4.68%, both hitting three-week lows. The selloff followed signs of rising global availability, including Ivory Coast port arrivals of 2.11 MMT for the current marketing year, up 21% year on year. Nigeria’s June cocoa exports rose 30% y/y to 18,922 MT, and ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a two-year high of 3,361,752 bags. While El Niño risks and expectations of a smaller 2026/27 crop offer longer-term support, near-term oversupply pressured prices.
