Jefferies warns crypto volatility could intensify in the second half as U.S. “Clarity Act” stalls
AI Market Summary
Jefferies warns crypto volatility could rise in 2H as the U.S. "Clarity Act" stalls, with Polymarket odds of passage by year-end falling to 48% from 70%. A delay would prolong regulatory ambiguity around when tokens are treated as SEC-regulated securities, potentially slowing institutional expansion in tokenization, custody, staking, and lending. The uncertainty is framed as a near-term volatility catalyst for Bitcoin and broader digital assets.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT-2.04%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Jefferies warned that cryptocurrency market volatility could worsen in the second half of the year as the U.S. “Clarity Act” stalls in Congress. The brokerage said the probability of the bill passing by year-end has fallen to 48% from 70% in mid-May, as lawmakers head into the summer recess and political uncertainty builds ahead of November’s midterm elections. The legislation would clarify when digital assets are regulated as securities, and a delay would prolong regulatory uncertainty that could amplify swings in Bitcoin.
