Kalshi traders put odds under 60% that payrolls top 100,000 in Thursday jobs report
AI Market Summary
Kalshi positioning implies downside risk to Thursday's nonfarm payrolls versus the 118k Dow Jones consensus, with sub-60% odds of >100k jobs. A weaker print would challenge risk appetite and affect rate expectations, while traders broadly align with consensus unemployment and modest wage growth. The divergence highlights elevated data uncertainty and sensitivity across U.S. equity index futures and rates into the release.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCSIDOWJONES2USD/USDT-0.10%
AI Insight · NCSIDOWJONES2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Dow Jones’ consensus forecast calls for 118,000 jobs added in the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report. Kalshi traders, however, put the probability below 60% that job growth exceeds 100,000. They also price about 42% odds that payrolls rise above 125,000.
