Ivory Coast export pace and ICE stocks pressure cocoa, Sept NY falls 6.04% and London drops 6.37%
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures sold off sharply as Ivory Coast port arrivals rose to 2.07 MMT (+21% y/y) and ICE inventories climbed to a near two-year high (3.15M bags), signaling ample near-term supply and triggering long liquidation after a multi-week rally. While demand data show mixed signals and El Niño plus 2026/27 crop surveys point to tighter medium-term balances, the immediate inventory and export surge is dominating price action.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-0.16%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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Ivory Coast cocoa shipments for the 2025/26 season through July 5 reached 2.07 MMT, up 21% year on year, adding to near-term supply pressure. ICE cocoa inventories climbed to a nearly two-year high of 3,151,790 bags. As the market weighed these supply signals, September New York cocoa futures fell 6.04% in one session and September London cocoa futures slid 6.37%. Despite medium-term risks tied to El Niño and early expectations for a smaller 2026/27 crop of 1.8 MMT (-18% y/y), the near-term overhang has kept prices under pressure.
