Israel and Hezbollah agreed on a temporary ceasefire in southern Lebanon on Friday, easing pressure from a recently escalating regional conflict. The pause offers breathing room ahead of U.S.–Iran talks under a 60-day framework agreement, prompting markets to reassess Middle East supply risks. Brent crude has rebounded from this week’s low of $77 a barrel to above $80 a barrel, according to the report. The truce does not resolve core security demands, and uncertainty remains over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a broader restoration of supply.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation has completed the first 2025 tender for oil and gas blocks, signing agreements with companies including Repsol, Eni and QatarEnergy in the country’s first major licensing push in 17 years. Output is running at 1.4 million bpd, a 10-year high, and officials are targeting 1.6 million bpd by year-end. Italy, Greece, Spain, Turkey, as well as Egypt, Tunisia and Nigeria have recently expanded or resumed purchases of Libyan crude. Despite the east-west political split and risks around revenue diversion, an April unified budget framework allowed both sides to share oil income, supporting near-term supply stability.

The U.S. and Iran have signed a 14-point memorandum that lifted a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing tankers — including Saudi supertankers — to resume transits. Shipping companies and insurers remain cautious about route security, with fighting in Lebanon ongoing and Israel saying it will keep troops in a security zone in southern Lebanon. Iran has warned that continued Israeli occupation could void the agreement. Separately, the U.S. is pushing to link Venezuela’s Loran gas field with Trinidad’s LNG facilities to strengthen an Atlantic gas export corridor.

India’s government has directed Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) to invest $1.6 billion to build a new 1.75 million-metric-ton underground strategic petroleum reserve facility in Mangaluru. The project would lift India’s total underground crude storage capacity by about one third to around 7 million metric tons, or roughly 52 million barrels, while cover would still be only about 9–10 days. The move follows a supply crisis tied to conflict in the Middle East that pushed up India’s energy import bill and domestic fuel prices.

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. said the country is working toward a long-term arrangement to buy oil from Russia as it looks to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines imported in April its first cargo of Russia’s Far Eastern ESPO crude in six years. Before the war, the country sourced 98% of its oil from the Middle East, and it declared a national energy emergency in March.

Switzerland confirmed that U.S.-Iran peace talks have been postponed, and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance canceled his trip to attend. At the same time, Israel continued airstrikes in southern Lebanon, saying it was retaliating for Hezbollah ceasefire violations. After earlier sliding below $80 a barrel on expectations tied to the talks, Brent climbed back above $80 while WTI rose to $76.28. The article said tanker traffic has not materially normalized, reviving concerns over Middle East shipping risks and near-term supply disruptions.

A surge in AI compute demand is driving an unprecedented jump in electricity needs, tightening supply and turning grid connections into a major bottleneck. The article argues that companies such as BitZero benefit from having already secured stable, low-cost power, which can translate into an advantage for data centers and crypto mining. It also identifies Vistra (VST), Eaton (ETN) and GE Vernova (GEV) as potential beneficiaries of data-center-driven power expansion, and lists natgas as a key commodity beneficiary.

The United States and Iran have signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding, committing to negotiate a final agreement within a “maximum” of 60 days, and Iran pledged to use its best efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have traded the near-term peace narrative, with Brent crude sliding below $80 per barrel. The IEA says global inventories are at historic lows, including OECD government stocks at their lowest since 1990, which could steer 2027 supply growth toward refilling depleted stockpiles. Together with seasonal demand improvement, those factors are seen supporting a new floor above the $60–70 per barrel range.

中国石油和印度石油公司因波斯湾超大型油轮（VLCC）运价飙升至战前三倍，且缺乏霍尔木兹海峡安全通行保证，无法按期租船装载伊拉克巴士拉原油，已导致6月底装货计划受阻，印度石油公司甚至对相关货物宣布不可抗力。多家国际头部油轮运营商表示短期内不会重返霍尔木兹海峡，预计供应扰动将持续数周。该事件直接冲击原油海运交付环节，加剧近月现货供应紧张。