Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has moved back above $73,000 for the first time since early February, with on-chain analyst Ali Martinez suggesting the move could evolve into a relief rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly absorbed about $776 million in BTC last week and roughly $789 million since the week starting March 2, helping to support the price near $73,200. Martinez notes that on-chain resistance looks relatively light between $72,000 and $81,000, with stronger supply clusters only emerging around $83,307 and $84,569.

Bitcoin climbed to a new monthly high above $73,000 after initially dropping to $63,000 when USA and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on Saturday. The price has since recovered more than $10,000, with analysts pointing to aggressive whale buying and a strong breakout, while warning that a fall below roughly $71,500–$72,000 could signal renewed weakness.

Bitcoin climbed to a monthly peak near $73,019 during the latest Wall Street open, but technical signals suggest the bear market risk remains. Analyst Keith Alan highlighted that a weekly death cross between the 21-week and 100-week moving averages is likely to print next week, which could precede another leg down unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

According to analyst Lisa N Edwards, Bitcoin's historical pattern memory and Fibonacci retracement behavior suggest this cycle may not bottom until prices drop below $40,000. Her chart-based study compares past cycle lows at the 0.786 and 0.86 retracement levels with the current structure, outlining potential downside zones between roughly $39,000 and $31,000 if the assumed October 2025 peak holds as the true high. Deeper targets such as a return to $20,000 are viewed in this framework as a break from Bitcoin's prior cycle dynamics rather than a continuation of the established pattern.

Bitcoin's long-term price pattern, based on a nine-year rising channel, remains intact and now points to a key support region near $60,000. A chart shared on March 4 by Trader Tardigrade shows BTC repeatedly moving between the channel's boundaries since 2017, with past rebounds from the lower band leading to strong rallies. With Bitcoin recently trading around $71,368.32 and already pushing above the channel again, the model sketches a potential overshoot range between about $170,000 and $600,000, though such projections rely on historical behavior and are not guaranteed.

On Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Ethereum's price climbed more than 3% to a local high near $2,090 before trading around $2,041, while its market capitalization stood at roughly $245.9 billion. The move followed a broader crypto rebound led by Bitcoin after a policy push related to stablecoin yields, with open interest and funding rates signaling renewed bullish sentiment. A trading expert noted that a break above $2,140 could open the way toward $2,500, while another rejection might send ETH closer to $1,820 amid recent net outflows from U.S. spot ETH ETFs.

Bitcoin briefly advanced to a one-month peak near $72,000 after earlier falling below $64,000 during the escalating conflict involving the USA, Israel, and Iran. Traders now debate whether a sustained move above $70,000–$71,500 could extend the rally toward $74,000–$80,000 or if failure to hold that area might send BTC back to the $65,000–$66,000 support.

Between March 3 and March 4, Bitcoin rebounded from recent weakness and climbed back to about $71,000 after repeatedly failing to hold above $67,000 and nearly dropping below $60,000. Veteran economist Peter Schiff called the move a "head fake" and urged traders to sell BTC in favor of gold and silver, even as major institutions maintain long-term price targets of $100,000 to $150,000 for 2026. At the same time, gold and silver themselves have seen sharp swings, and some market participants expect both Bitcoin and precious metals to face heightened volatility.

Research and brokerage firm K33 said bitcoin has become deeply oversold after six consecutive weekly declines and five straight down months, with its weekly relative strength index dropping to one of the lowest readings on record. Head of Research Vetle Lunde argued that extreme bearish positioning in derivatives and heavy de-risking by long-term and institutional holders have created a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation, adding the firm sees no compelling reason to sell BTC at current prices.

According to on-chain data, long-term Bitcoin holders holding coins for at least 150 days accumulated 212,000 BTC over the past 30 days, valued at more than $14 billion at current prices. During the same period, seventeen of the 25 largest Bitcoin ETF holders increased their positions, while retail traders were selling as Bitcoin traded around the mid-$60,000 range after an earlier peak of $126,200. Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $1.5 billion in inflows across five trading sessions, ending with a single-day intake of $458 million.