Bitcoin is sliding, with price near $66,399 and the Realized Price at $54,951 seen as the first structural support. LTH Cost Basis is climbing while Realized Price declines, narrowing a prospective $43K–$51K zone over the next quarter. A sustained break below $54,951 would increase the risk of a deeper bear phase.

Bitcoin traded above $66,000 on Friday after falling about 30% over the past month. Alphractal said the network's long-term Realized Cap Impulse moved below zero for the first time in three years, a shift historically followed by extended drawdowns. A global uncertainty gauge is at a record high, reinforcing a cautious backdrop for risk assets.

A recent update from 10x Research links Bitcoin's sharp fall from $90,000 to $60,000 within a few weeks to heavy institutional flows and unwinding of structured positions. The firm highlighted unusually high trading volumes in BlackRock's IBIT ETF and concentrated Asian-session gains, which have fueled market speculation about distress at a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund based in Hong Kong, while cautioning against blaming a single entity.

In 2025, Bitcoin closed the year with a 6% loss while gold surged 65%, driving the BTC/gold ratio down nearly 70% from its late-2024 peak to about 13 ounces. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argued that judging Bitcoin’s "digital gold" status on a single year of underperformance ignores its long-term record of outpacing gold in most years since 2012. Weak U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows and stronger gold ETF demand have widened the divergence, though the BTC/gold ratio is approaching support levels last seen in the 2022 bear market.

In August 2024, funding rates last turned deeply negative; in October 2025, CryptoQuant's BCMI sat near 0.5 before sliding to 0.2 by February 12. The firm says this mirrors early bear phases, with $5.4 billion in realized losses on February 5 and price still about 18% above the $55,000 realized level.

Bitcoin is under renewed selling pressure, with its Combined Market Index (BCMI) falling into the low 0.2 range, according to CryptoQuant. Price recently lost the $70,000 level and is trading in the mid‑$60,000s, while the $60,000–$62,000 band is highlighted as a critical support area. Current BCMI readings remain above prior cycle bottoms near 0.10–0.15.

Bitcoin’s price saw sharp swings between 5-6 February, with a 14.3% drop followed by a 12.2% rebound, while key volatility gauges moved higher. Large holders sent around 12,000 BTC to Binance on 06 February, with multiple days above 5,000 BTC inflows as the price slid from $95,000 toward $60,000 and then hovered near $67,800 under its 20-day MA.

On February 13 2026, data from derivatives markets showed Bitcoin short positions on centralized exchanges at their most aggressive levels since August 2024, with funding rates dropping sharply into negative territory as BTC trades around $65,000–$66,500. This positioning follows a prior cycle where a $55,000 multi‑month bottom in August 2024 preceded an 83% price advance to a $106,000 peak four months later, and current metrics such as the near‑1.1 MVRV ratio suggest Bitcoin is approaching historically undervalued levels without guaranteeing an immediate rally.