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Gold Price Forecast: US NFP Surprise Sparks Volatility; Will XAU/USD Break $5,115 Amid Strong US Data?
As of February 12, 2026, gold (XAU) remains volatile, trading between $5,000 and $5,100 after a stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report reshaped Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. January job growth surged to 130,000 versus a 70,000 forecast, unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and wages rose 0.4% month-over-month, prompting markets to raise the probability of a March rate hold to 95%. Gold initially fell to $5,020 as the US dollar and Treasury yields jumped but rebounded toward $5,060 on dip-buying. Despite short-term pressure, long-term fundamentals remain supportive, including strong central bank demand—863 tonnes purchased in 2025—ongoing de-dollarization led by China, geopolitical tensions, and institutional hedging against sovereign debt risks. Technically, gold is consolidating within an ascending triangle below $5,115 resistance, supported by rising 50- and 200-EMAs, with RSI near neutral. A breakout above $5,115 could target $5,250 or higher, while a drop below $4,986 risks deeper losses toward $4,820, as traders await upcoming US inflation data.
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ARK Invest spends nearly $50M on Robinhood, Bullish and Circle as Bitcoin slips under $66,000
On Wednesday, ARK Invest led by Cathie Wood bought 433,806 Robinhood shares for about $33.8 million, along with additional Bullish and Circle stock totaling roughly $16 million, while the three names traded lower. Over the same session, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $276.3 million in net outflows and total Bitcoin ETF assets fell to $85.7 billion amid broader crypto market weakness.
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ARK
ARK+3.95%
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Thailand SEC widens derivatives scope to cover digital assets and carbon credits in 2026
On February 10, 2026, following a Cabinet decision, Thailand's SEC moved to broaden the range of underlying products allowed under the Derivatives Act B.E. 2546 (2003) to include digital assets and carbon credits. The regulator plans licensing and supervisory adjustments with TFEX to support new derivative contracts, while market data show Thailand's crypto sector has reached $3.19 billion in value and $95 million in average daily trading volume.
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Ark Invest extends Bullish and Circle stock purchases, adding $11.6M Bullish stake on latest trading day
On Wednesday, Ark Invest led by Cathie Wood added more shares of Bullish and Circle through three of its exchange-traded funds, taking its Bullish purchases to ten straight trading days. The firm bought 364,044 Bullish shares valued at $11.6 million at the latest close, alongside 75,559 Circle shares worth about $4.4 million, while both stocks and major U.S. equity indexes saw mixed price moves.
BULLISH
BULLISH-1.41%
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U.S. lawmakers press SEC Chair Paul Atkins on 60% crypto enforcement decline in 2025
On February 12, 2026, Democrat members of the House Financial Services Committee challenged U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins over a reported 60% decline in crypto-related enforcement activity since he assumed the role. Lawmakers highlighted dismissed lawsuits, Trump family-linked crypto ventures and memecoins, national security concerns, and Cornerstone Research data showing SEC crypto penalties in 2025 fell to $142 million, under 3% of 2024 levels.
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