Kalshi traders price 66% odds Hormuz shipping won't normalize before January 2027

Prediction-market traders are increasingly betting the Strait of Hormuz will not see normal shipping traffic this year. On Kalshi, the chance of not returning to normal before January 2027 is 66%, while odds of normalization before August dropped from 66% to 21% over the past two weeks. The market defines "normal traffic" as a seven-day moving average above 60 ships transiting the strait.