On Oct. 2, 2025, Bitcoin set an all‑time high at $126,000. On Feb. 6, Glassnode recorded a long‑term holder net‑position change drop of 245,000 BTC, followed by average reductions of 170,000 BTC, while CryptoQuant’s MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score hit -2.66. Several analysts now project a potential bottom around $40,000–$50,000 in Q4 2026.

Bitcoin set a weekly low near $65,500 and has fallen for four straight days, while funding rates in futures remain deeply negative since early February. According to CryptoQuant, the 7-day average turned negative for the first time since March 2023 and November 2022, and analysts say crowded shorts could face a squeeze if $58,000 holds.

On Feb. 5, on-chain data cited by CryptoQuant showed cryptocurrency investors locking in $3.2 billion in realized losses within 24 hours, placing the sell-off among Bitcoin's top 3–5 historical loss events. The downturn follows a week of average daily realized losses of $2.3 billion and comes as Standard Chartered warns Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 amid a weakening macro backdrop.

On Feb. 11, 2026, James "Checkmate" Check told host Danny Knowles that Bitcoin's slide into the $60,000 area pushed it into "deep value" across several mean-reversion models, while capitulation-style losses matched 2022 cycle lows. He estimated the probability that a meaningful bottom is already in at "more than 50/50", "probably 60%", and cited roughly $7.5 billion in ETF outflows during the drawdown.

Glassnode’s Feb. 11 on-chain report indicates Bitcoin is trading in a range defined by a True Market Mean near $79,200 and a realized price around $55,000, similar to conditions seen in early 2022. Analysts say that without a decisive move above $72,000 or a major downside shock, BTC could remain in a prolonged consolidation as heavy overhead supply and whale positioning limit upside momentum.

On February 12, 2026, onchain data from Arkham Intelligence showed the Royal Government of Bhutan moved 100 BTC, valued at $6.77 million, to QCP Capital's WBTC merchant deposit address. Arkham also traces a similar 100 BTC transfer worth $8.31 million two weeks earlier, alongside a $1.5 million USDT transaction to Binance.

On February 12, 2026, Standard Chartered cut its year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecast to $100,000, its second downgrade in three months. The bank's note warned BTC could briefly fall toward $50,000 amid persistent ETF outflows and softer corporate demand, and it delayed a $500,000 long-term target to 2030.

Bitcoin is trading near $67,000 in early 2026 while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to a rare 5–8 range, signaling extreme pessimism. Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz has described Bitcoin as a technological dead end that mainly depends on user trust, even as JPMorgan strategists project a future rebound in digital assets driven by institutional investors.