Standard Chartered's Kendrick: Bitcoin likely set its cycle low near $59,000

Standard Chartered Bank senior market analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said the current Bitcoin drawdown may have already bottomed, with the low likely forming around the $59,000 area as key headwinds that previously weighed on the market begin to fade. CoinDesk data show Bitcoin slid to $59,375 on June 5 before rebounding to around $64,000. Kendrick described the zone as the cycle's "low of certainty," marking roughly a 53% decline from the $126,000 peak recorded on Oct. 6, 2025. Kendrick views recent selling tied to U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as temporary. He said cumulative net redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion since the second week of May, one of the most concentrated outflow stretches since the products launched. In his view, the pressure is not solely a reassessment of Bitcoin's fundamentals and is also linked to short-term capital rotating into other high-demand assets. He added that some ETF holders sold Bitcoin to raise cash to participate in SpaceX's IPO, and that financing-driven selling could ease as the listing process progresses. He highlighted SpaceX's IPO and developments in the Middle East as key catalysts to watch. Kendrick said rising expectations for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement could keep oil prices capped and improve broader risk sentiment. The report noted that after U.S. President Trump referenced the possibility of an agreement with Iran, Brent crude fell to about $87 a barrel and WTI to around $85. Looking ahead, Kendrick pointed to three signals: whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs can flip back to net inflows in a single day, whether international oil prices continue to fall, and whether corporate treasury buying resumes. He said a restart in corporate purchases, a return to positive ETF flows, and an end to oil's upward momentum would make it easier to confirm a near-term bottom for Bitcoin. Kendrick also reiterated his view that Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin this year. He currently targets $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum by year-end, citing capital flows, corporate buying, and shifts in the macro backdrop as the main drivers.