On January 21, 2026, Ray Dalio argued that the fiat monetary system, domestic politics, and global geopolitics are breaking down. In posts shared over the past 24 hours, he said central banks are reassessing fiat currencies and U.S. dollar debt as stores of wealth, while the U.S.–foreign debt relationship is fraying and China has continued reducing its Treasury exposure.

Bitwise said in a report shared Wednesday that Q4 2025 revealed weaker prices alongside strengthening on‑chain activity and revenues, a setup it associates with bear‑market lows. CIO Matt Hougan drew parallels to early 2023 and flagged record usage on Ethereum and layer‑2s, a stablecoin market cap above $300 billion, and DeFi volumes surpassing centralized peers, while outlooks for 2026 remain divided.

Thailand’s securities regulator is preparing rules for crypto ETFs and for trading crypto futures on TFEX, with formal ETF guidelines targeted early this year. The plan classifies digital assets as another asset class with a suggested allocation of up to 5% in diversified portfolios, and also advances market-making and a tokenization sandbox.

On January 22, 2026, Polymarket traders assigned a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the January 27–28 meeting. A January 16–21 survey of 100 economists showed unanimous expectations for a 3.50%–3.75% target range, with 58% anticipating no change through the quarter.

The US Senate Banking Committee has postponed work on the crypto market structure bill, with unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg expecting consideration in late February or March. The panel is prioritizing housing legislation after President Donald Trump's affordability push, while industry voices such as Patrick Witt urge swift action on the CLARITY Act.

U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee chair John Boozman said Republicans on the panel have not reached agreement with Democrats on key elements of a new crypto market structure bill, even as a Republican draft was released for a Jan. 27 markup. The proposal outlines how the SEC and CFTC would oversee digital asset markets and adds protections for DeFi developers and certain intermediaries while excluding stablecoin yield rules, which fall under the Banking Committee.

In its Big Ideas 2026 report released on Wednesday, Ark Invest projected that the total value of digital assets could jump from about $3.13 trillion to $28 trillion by 2030, implying roughly 9x growth. The firm expects Bitcoin to capture around 70% of this market and forecasts its market cap could climb from nearly $2 trillion to $16 trillion over the next five years, while smart contract networks and tokenized real-world assets also see substantial expansion.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in a report shared on Wednesday that the fourth quarter of 2025 showed mixed signals and may have marked a crypto bear‑market bottom. He compared the setup to early 2023, when prices climbed from around $16,000 to $98,000 by early 2025, and highlighted record Ethereum and layer‑2 activity, a stablecoin market cap above $300 billion, and rising DeFi usage.